"Official" Oscar Predics, 2/29

[Royler]

This about wraps it up for my awards gallop until the Emmys in September. While I had a stellar 2003, the Globes kicked my ass in January, and I'm feeling a little pummeled.


Best Picture
To see anything but "Rings" would be shocking. This was pre-ordained in 2001 - providing Jackson didn't screw up the latter two, his reward was coming.

Best Director
To see anything but Jackson would be shocking. This was pre-ordained in 2001 - providing Jackson didn't screw up the latter two, his reward was coming. (Echo, echo...)

Best Actor
This is probably the tightest major race in years: Penn came out with an early lead and has been more visible and charming than usual. Many feel his time is now.

The same could also be said for Murray, who has delivered countless excellent performances in his career, but has gone largely unrecognized as the Academy usually ignores comedic actors. (Ironic, considering how difficult it is to be funny.) Picking up the Golden Globe certainly increased his momentum. As with Penn, I think voters see a more relaxed and accomplished actor.

Depp's odds have see-sawed in the wake of his shocking win at the SAGs last weekend. Coming off of that, it wouldn't be totally impossible to see him win here, but I simply don't think his is the type of performance that cries for gold. He was in a movie based on a theme park ride, for God's sake. SAG members may have believed that Depp had zero chance on Sunday and wished to recognize him in their own way.

In the end, I think it's Murray by a hair.

Best Actress
JCambert has certainly opened my eyes to the possibilities of Keisha-Castle Hughes. The Academy loves young women, and apparently young women from New Zealand, as Anna Pacquin won for her role in the "Piano" in 1993.

But how much acting skill can be attributed to a 13 year old and how much of it is attributible to the direction she took? I think voters - industry veterans all - realize the limits of child actors and know when to tow the line.

Yes, Pacquin won - but she was nommed in Supporting Actress, and NONE of her competition that year was even remotely as fierce as Charlize Theron. And yes, Tatum O'Neal won eons ago, but her father cut a striking figure at the time.

Theron dived right into a cliche', packed on the pounds, painted her teeth yellow, and distanced herself as far as humanly possible to her true persona. That kind of broad, brazen transformation is Oscar catnip.

I believe Theron is a justifiable favorite here.

Best Supporting Actress
More of a wide-open race than people think. This is Zellweger's third nomination in as many years but "Cold Mountain" left everyone underwhelmed. Shoreh Aghdashloo could satisfy Oscar's need to embrace foreign talent.

Best Supporting Actor
I can't imagine anyone besides Robbins taking this, especially considering Penn and "River" might drop the ball to Murray.

Best Animated Film
I question if those mindlessly chanting "Nemo" have ever even seen a commercial for its competition.

Don't get me wrong: "Nemo" should win handily, but "Triplets of Belleville" is an absolutely stunning piece of work, as handsomely hand-drawn as "Nemo" is...generated. No, I don't expect voters to do something daring here, but I have to laugh at the sheer absurdity of this prop. "Nemo" is too big to bet against, but "Belleville" is too striking to be against.

Best Cinematography
Congrats to those who got "Seabiscuit" for a song. I don't have an opinion here.

Best Documentary
It's a two-horse race between "Capturing the Friedmans" and "The Fog of War." Both are arresting works, but Errol Morris ("Fog") is an old hand at the genre, and his topic (war, the world, and us) is just too grand to be overshadowed by pedophilia. I think voters will think big here.

Best Foreign Film
"Barbarian Invasions" seems to have a huge edge, but obtuse voting criteria and release issues make this less of a sure thing than the "Rings" juggernaut.

Best Original Screenplay
"Lost in Translation" gets a nod here with Coppola. She wrote a lovely, lyrical film. Justifiable favorite.

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Seabiscuit" seems to be building a story running parallel to its subject matter: the dark horse that could. While it shot out of nowhere to claim the top slot in Best Cinematography, it didn't get shown much love elsewhere. Allegedly, it has a lot of support from within the Academy, and pundits seem to believe that "Rings" will gorge itself elsewhere. At 10-1 odds, this is - IMO - the best value play on the card. I defer to the wisdom of pundit Pete Hammond, who correctly predicted the Brody upset last year and agrees with this. Homey knows his shit.

"Mystic River" has its share of supporters as well, but it seems to be an actor's stage more than a triumph of screenwriting.

Best Song
Ugh, enough with the hobbits already. While it probably deserves the major nods, this category - like Adapted Screenplay - is a chance to acknowledge other talent at work in 2003. (My God, there WERE other movies besides "Rings!") "Into the West" and the two songs from "Cold Mountain" are nicely done, but generally unexceptional ballads. I have a hard time telling them apart.

Again, I need to give it up for "Belleville," which sounds as good as it looks: stylish, jazzy, and just beautifully executed. GOD, it's good, and shames the competition with its energy. I've listened to it endlessly, whereas I actually counted the seconds until the others ended. Faced with the inevitable "Nemo" wave, this could be a nice consolation prize.


Best of luck to everyone. In the end, I'm just not ready to nut up and throw another four-figure bankroll at the mercy of Hollywood's deranged elite.

My only bets this year are "Seabiscuit" for Best Adapted Screenplay, $200 to win $2,000.

And...

"Triplets of Belleville" for Best Song, $100 to win $800.

Enjoy. Perhaps all bettors can post their final wager sheet here for ease of reference. It's a real slog to have to go through ten pages of rants.

 

[jcambert]

Wow. You are good, and, I couldn't possibly agree with you more. I see eye to eye with you on everything, including Robbins winning and Charlize PROBABLY winning. One thing that I don't agree with you on is that Keisha's performance was largely attributable to the direction. Did you see the film? If you did, then the scene where she is on stage and heartbroken because her grandfather didn't show up to watch her, and she begins crying has nothing to do with direction and everything to do with an absolutely brilliant actress (albeit a very young one), with an almost limitless future.

I agree with you on Seabiscuit winning best adapted screenplay and, I just got it at +900. I was waiting to see if the +1000 number increased still a bit more, but, I would bet that YOUR wager is the one that lowered it to +900. Thanks alot, pally.

Anyway, great writeup and, I agree with you on every single race. I think Murray and Shoreh will both "upset" although I don't think that Murray's win will be considered an upset, necesarily.

One thing I will say is that, despite the Theron support, I just can't seem to rule out a Keisha surprise. It's just a feeling in the pit of my stomach similar to the same feeling that I had last year with Brody. By the way, Hammond is wonderful, and I think he's clearly the most accurate prognosticator out there. He predicted Brody last year, and so did I.

Truth be told, I only need one or two of these to come in and I'm in the money. Good luck to you, man. Out of curiosity, what wagers did you place, other than the Biscuit in Adapted?

JP

 

[Royler]

JCambert,

As noted above, my only plays this year are "Seabiscuit" for Adapted and "Belleville" for Best Song. I don't feel like having a laundry list to sweat this year, and I feel those two plays offer the best possible value.

I admit to being on the fence about dropping $100 on Hughes. She's still a very appealing +1000 at OLY. It's hard to imagine Theron not seeing her tireless campaigning pay off, but as we all know, there WILL be upsets.

And yes, that 'Biscuit line did drop off after I placed my bet. It was +750 only a couple of days ago, however, and "River" seems to have gained some financial support, moving from -120 to -200. Regardless, it was still too much value to pass up.

 

[jcambert]

Agreed, and, I still give Keisha about a 15% to 20% (maybe higher) chance at pulling this off, with nobody else having much of a shot, if any, in my humble opinion (and I include Keaton and Watts in that statement). At 23 to 1, there was too much value to pass up. I think that you might be able to get better than 10 to 1 right now, though, if you shop around. Some of the betting exchanges might have her at bigger odds than that. you have great value in the Seabiscuit bet, and, frankly, I don't have any opinion at all on the Song bet. Seabiscuit will very possibly cash for both of us tonight, and, hopefully it cashes on the Cinematography one also.

Good luck.
JP

 

[jcambert]

Wsex has Keisha at 19 to 1 odds on their futures market page, which is ridiculous value...ridiculous.

I also saw Marcia Gay Harden at 50 to 1 on Intertops, which, again, is absurd.

Thought you guys might want a heads up.

JP

 

[Oren1]

Nice write-up Royler, I'm in the same boat as you but couldn't resist throwing down a bit on a couple very uncertain races, since you know, I am a gambler afterall.

Here's my card:
Tim Robbins to win best supporting actor, -138: 413 to win 300, and -120: 240 to win 200.

Cold Mountain to win Best Musical Score, +400: 25 to win 100. Just liked the music in this one, and was disapointed at the recycling that was done for Return of the King.

Master and Commander to win Best Cinematography, +400: 100 to win 400. My reasoning for this pick is I believe a war film at sea is a more challenging task than the other nominees untertook, and the result is picture-perfect. How much of that success is attributed to I.L.M. I'm not sure, probably a lot I suppose. I was also tempted to take Cold Mountain at +1000 as I believe Renee isn't the only person who deserves to be rewarded for that excellent piece of work, regardless of what the naysayers might think. It was also shot beautifully and I thought the type of film and lense filters, etc. that were used fit the story perfectly. But with the perceived backlash against Cold Mountain I had to go with Master and Commander, really just because I think +400 is a decent price for a movie that might have a 1/3 shot at winning. Also, looking at past winners the Academy has gone with the more popular films with higher production values than say an indie film such as Girl with a Pearl Earring. So Seabiscuit it is

Sean Penn to win Best Actor, +100, 100 to win 100. Flip a coin... My heart goes out to Murray, as will a lot of the voters, but, in the end they could go with the more dramatic and powerful performance here.

gl again guys

and sorry JC, but, Theron is a lock bud.

and I just added, I think, not sure exatcly sure how these future markets work at WSEX, but I took Coppola for best director, 10 to win 100.

[This message was edited by Oren1 on February 29, 2004 at 04:50 PM.]

 

[jcambert]

Theron isn't a lock. She is the heavy favorite and will probably win it, but, she isn't a lock. LOTR is a lock, Peter Jackson is a lock, Charlize Theron isn't a lock.

And, Cold Mountain was an awful piece of film-making, in my humble opinion. If I had a say...which I don't...it would go home empty handed, and, it just might.

JP

 

[Oren1]

Alright you're right, Keisha has a 1% chance to win. And, at the very least, Zelwegger is most likely taking the trophy for best supporting actress so that's a big "might."

 

[jcambert]

Why? Because Oren the "money making machine" says so? Dude, forget about me. Royler knows quite a bit more about the awards (and actually making money with them) than you do (and it's not even close), and, he's predicting Shoreh and agrees that Keisha has a chance. Furthermore, look around the web and you will see the same thing.

I know it's hard for you to comprehend this, Oren, but, you seem to think you know everything, but you don't.

JP

PS. Take a look at Neil Young's film lounge. He's someone that I respect and read alot of come this time of year, and he is actually PREDICTING both Shoreh and Keisha to win. You do NOT know it all. You are also the same guy that said that you can only make money betting favorites at the awards, which was a pretty funny statement, considering that I make money each and every year, and have been doing so for a long time now, betting exclusively dogs.

 

[Oren1]

JCambert, there you go again. Your charisma is bedazzling. Did you get your panties in a bunch because I faded all of your plays? LOL. So what are your plays? I want to keep track of them seeing as you could go 0-fer this time around.

 

[jcambert]

Oren, rest assured, I will post a recap of all my plays, which have already been posted elsewhere, so that, if I have a tough night, you can have your fun.

By the way, you are the one who specifically referenced me in your post when you stated your opinion (your square opinion) as fact.

Again, forget about me, as you don't like me and I don't like you. Think about Royler who is infinately more knowledgable than you are and he agrees with me, not you. That's all I need to know.

Oren, you are the definition of a square (the type of gambler who thinks that playing 2 to 1 favorites is the only way to make money), so, I don't really respect your opinion anyway, so, don't get so bent out of shape.

JP

 

[Oren1]

by the way, technically I got Robbins at -120 and -138, not exactly 2-1 odds, or does JCambert need another math lesson again?

 

[JOddessa]

ICQ had some viewers memebrs polls. Maybe they will help you guys. I know nada about this stuff, so good luk if it helps you in any way. amybe will give you an extra pubic opinion.- Good luk.

Joey

 

[Oren1]

hey dude I just noticed, you must have complained about my tagline, it no longer says "Oren, no offense man, but, you are a ****ing idiot." -JCambert.

awwwwwwwwwwwww did the overly-sensitive JCambert not like having his name in my sig?

 

[Oren1]

Don't worry, I found a new one:

"Theron isn't a lock. She is the heavy favorite and will probably win it, but, she isn't a lock. LOTR is a lock, Peter Jackson is a lock, Charlize Theron isn't a lock."

Here's to Copolla winning best director.

 

[jcambert]

Trust me, I didn't complain about your tagline. And, for the record, I do really believe that you are a know nothing moron. And, you can put that on your tagline if it makes you happy. Again, you are a square, so, I don't really respect you all that much.
JP

 

[jcambert]

Hey Oren, is there any way that you could simply refrain from referring to me or my wagers in any of your posts? You tend to bring this on. I haven't referenced you (mostly because I barely even realized you were still alive), so, could you extend the same courtesy to me?

By the way, I still can't get enough of you saying that the only way to make money betting the awards is betting favorites. LOL. I love it.
JP

 

[Oren1]

Why are you balking at posting you plays mr. big time sharp awards-show guy? Come on, I want to see 'em. You posted "Just played Harden at +2000 at WWTS." and "Best Adapted Screenplay:

Seabiscuit +900"

but any monkey can post all these plays and then later say they put 10 units on the one they won later on, which, really the only one you have any chance at winning is Seabiscuit at +1200 for cinematography. You got lucky on that one, but it's still to be decided. Let me guess you put a dime on it. Well done!

 

[red007]

Here is what I'm playing
Theron -375 for 4 units.
Robbins -350 for 2 units.
Jackson -800 for 2 units.
LOTR -900 for 2 units.

 

[jcambert]

Dumbass, read my posts. You will see that I have stated that I am playing everything for the same amount. It's all there in black and white, now leave me the fvck alone. You are really starting to piss me off. I don't like you, nor do I respect your opinion, so stop referrencing me.

JP